Mark’s presentation revolved around his studies of local climate trends and their possible effects on mountain operations in those areas. He has completed studies for Park City Colorado along with one other Colorado ski area.
Some interesting notes he made are:
- The west has been warmer 2 out of last 5 years
- Each decade the planet has been warming 1.6 degrees farenehit
- Warming is more pronounced in summer
- by 2100 climate models predict the earth to be 12 degrees Celsius warmer
- Gloom and doom seems to be 50-60 years away
- Changes we make today, make a big difference in the future
Mark’s slides show three different possibilities for the snow pack in the future. They vary depening on how much we are able to change the way we live and hwo much green house gasses are produced. He gives a bad case senario, a good case senario and a stay the same (same rate of increase) scenario.
By 2030 in Colorado -The ski season will:
- begin 1 week later
- end 1 week earlier
- below 7500ft no snow
- Avalanch conditions will appear earlier and more severe, increased risk of wet-slab avalanches
- These models are confident in predicting tempatures, not a change in weather pattern that may come with changing temperatures. More percipitation, a side effect that some are suggesting will come with global warming in the west, may have “positive” impacts on snowfall (not so positive in the big picture)
By 2100 The Ski Season will:
Begin 1-2 weeks later
Melt 18 – 20 days earlier
No snow below 9000ft
Mark’s Take Home Messages
Most snow change will happen on shoulder season
snow levels will move up
Bad News
Current trends in Co2 production are much worse than the “bad case” scenario mentioned above
Ski Areas close to the current snow level are in trouble
They need to move higher to be viable ( this is happening in europe http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/jan/14/glaciers.travelandtransport)
Good News
Our actions today can have a huge impact! Reduce Co2. It has to start now, Co2 lasts in the atmosphere for at least 100 years, meaning long term consequences need to be halted now
If you are interested in having a study done on your area, it will cost you about $60,000.
